Is their claim true? Beats me, but smarter folk than I (with no affiliation to these companies) have done separate cost projections. They suggest that, if solar thermal plants continue to receive investment and are built in numbers, their construction costs will fall enough to put any of the competing solar thermal technologies in that 10 cents range.

For Ausra, BrightSource and others to bank on that scenario playing out is a bet that might see their companies succeed or fail miserably. Your take is that they’re almost certain to fail. That’s fine, but considering that you start your arguments with an attack on the character and intelligence of others (myself and the “unproven people” at Ausra) doesn’t do much to persuade me to your viewpoint.

What’s a little more difficult is addressing the whole range of issues around cleantech, from oil prices, to subsidies, to technology. We’ve dug into those problems here and there in longer past posts, and we’ll continue to do so in the future.

You didn’t state that Ausra’s mirrors were cheaper, but that their “approach” was cheaper. The miniscule savings they get from flat mirrors will be vastly outweighed by losses in efficiency.

PG&E doesn’t disclose the rates it buys electricity at for these kinds of projects or, actually, any project. However, it’s under a mandate to pull 20% of its power from renewable sources by 2010. Thus, PG&E isn’t the only one with bargaining chips on the table. You’re obviously speculating that they’re securing prices that producers like Ausra will never be able to meet, but I’ll leave speculation to you.

The statement that Ausra’s mirrors are cheaper is indeed what the company says. However, it’s not hard to believe that flat mirrors are cheaper. Check it out sometime, at your local mirror shop. You can even buy one for yourself. Just try not to stare into it too much.

Finally, regarding photovoltaic cells — yes, it’s common knowledge that they aren’t cost-effective yet. With few exceptions, cleantech isn’t, across the board. Although someone may one day genetically modify pigs to fly, I expect that one of the many cleantech bets will pay off before then.

“California energy utility PG&E has agreed to buy power from a 177-megawatt solar thermal plant to be built by Silicon Valley company Ausra.”

Really? at what price? My guess is at a price that Ausra will never be able to reach cost-effectively, hence they will either never pay Ausra a cent or Ausra will get more dumb money for project finance and will lose money on every kilowatt-hour.

“Although PG&E has now committed to buying over a gigawatt of solar thermal energy in coming years, it remains to be seen which startup’s designs are most effective.”

PG&E has committed to buy power at a price that neither Ausra nor Brightsource can meet.

“However, the latter’s [Ausra's] approach, which uses mass-produced flat mirrors, is cheaper…”

Says who????

“Photovoltaic cells, which directly capture sunlight, may possibly become cheap enough to be a viable replacement.”

And pigs may possibly fly…